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The Everest analysis - the guide to the world's richest sprint
12 Oct 2017 | ThoroughbredNEWS News Desk 

An analysis of the $10m The Everest (1200m) at Randwick on Saturday - horse by horse - the guide to the world’s richest sprint – Race 7 @ 4.15pm AEST

Horse number, horse, trainer, jockey, barrier, comment, latest market price as at publishing time

1 CHAUTAUQUA Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Brenton Avdulla 5 – The rain maker, Sydney has gone weeks without rain and this week the first drops arrive for Randwick and 3mm to 8mm forecast for Saturday – good lead-up form on not favoured Good rated tracks – Soft track form 6:2-1-1 - $5.50 luxury odds.

2 VEGA MAGIC David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Craig Williams 10 – Must have a huge chance of featuring if Craig Williams is giving up a full book of rides on Caulfield Guineas Day in Melbourne to partner the former West Australian. Defeated no fewer than eight individual Group 1 winners last start and seems certain to be powering home at the finish. – Probably ‘unders’ at $5.00 all the same.

3 REDZEL Peter & Paul Snowden Kerrin McEvoy 4 – Unbeatable lead up form, no problem with softer conditions, sits on Houtzen’s back and then sprints and then it will be up to the rest to catch him - $7.50 and $2.60 make attractive pickings.

4 REDKIRK WARRIOR (GB) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Regan Bayliss 3 – Looks a class act down the Flemington straight but remains an unknown quantity around a turn over a specialist sprint distance in Sydney. Kept safe by the bookmakers at $9.50 but could only be taken on trust after two Randwick failures (albeit on heavy tracks) during the autumn.

5 CLEARLY INNOCENT Kris Lees Hugh Bowman 6 – Soft form 3 from 3 but might struggle for pure pace against this field - $14.00

6 DEPLOY Gerald Ryan Joshua Parr 7 – Boasts faultless sprint form in his two starts this season and looks perfectly suited by the course and distance. Looks genuine value at $11.00 if there’s a lack of early pressure. Conversely, seems certain to be tested to the full if the speed’s on from the start.

7 FELL SWOOP Matthew Dale Tye Angland 8 - $61.00 in the market and a fair call.

8 BRAVE SMASH (JPN) Darren Weir Jamie Spencer 9 – Would need to improve immensely to salute. Beaten fairly and squarely in Group 3 company last time out, and meets Vega Magic 6.5kgs worse off from a half-length beating at Caulfield in August. Justifiably $34.00 and no real reason to be any shorter. 

9 ENGLISH Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Blake Shinn 12 – Going as well as ever, but the wide barrier will make it hard to be better than the rest, again - $11.00 and $3.35 with place bet worthwhile.

10 SHE WILL REIGN Gary Portelli Corey Brown 2 – Outstanding win at Group 1 weight-for-age in the Moir and warrants the utmost respect. A 7.5kg weight advantage on the majority of her older rivals is also very much to her advantage. A deserved $5.00 co-favourite and there’s no obvious reason to oppose a brilliant filly that’s won five of her six starts and run a hugely creditable second in the only other.

11 HOUTZEN  Toby Edmonds Jeff Lloyd 1 – Will use speed from the barriers, but this is pressure the filly has yet to meet - $23.00.

12 TULIP David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Tim Clark 11 – Lovely filly and third in the Golden Slipper to She Will Reign, but the barrier and step up against the older, stronger sprinter will be leave her out of this - $61.00.

Three emergencies are left, In Her Time, Takedown and Ball of Muscle and they are at $16.00, $101.00 and $150.00 respectively in the market which we have no need to debate against.

Selections from the ThoroughbredNEWS News team:

Peter Falconer

Rob Burnet

Randwick Spy

The News Desk

English

Chautauqua

She Will Reign

She Will Reign

She Will Reign

Redzel

English

Deploy

Vega Magic

Deploy

Chautauqua

Chautauqua

Redzel

She Will Reign

Redzel

Redzel




Who will win Sydney's pot of The Everest gold on Saturday, picture ThoroughbredNEWS