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The Everest climb and factors to consider

It is three days to the climb to the second running of the $13 million TAB Everest (1200m) at Randwick and the 13th player in the 12 horse field is the Course Proper through no fault of its own.

 Sydney’s weather has delivered 82.8mm of rain in the last seven days with a resulting Heavy 8 rating on Thursday.

With low day temperatures of 18c on Thursday, 19c on Friday and 20c on Saturday there is little natural drying and with further showers forecast, particularly for Saturday with up to 5mm possible before race time, there is little prospect of much of a track upgrade.

Therefore Heavy conditions must be calculated into divining a winner.

TAB.com.au’s market has been even for days, so taking a line of $10 in the market place as being the expectation that this is where the winner will come from we undertook an unscientific look at pointers to consider.

Market movers – prices as at Thursday morning

Movement of $1 in the market

US Navy Flag (USA) $11.00 into $9.00

Redzel $8.00 into $7.00

Santa Ana Lane $7.00 out to $8.50

Movement of 50 cents in the market

Trapeze Artist $7.00 into $6.50 as outright favourite

Shoals $8.00 into $7.50

No movement

Vega Magic $7.00

Heavy track form in field order of the above

Redzel six starts 2-2-1

Santa Ana Lane two starts 1-0-0

Trapeze Artist three starts 0-0-2

Vega Magic no starts

US Navy Flag one start 0-0-0

Shoals one start 1-0-0

Who else has Heavy track form

Le Romain six starts 2-3-0

Who has the stamina to run further than 1200m from all runners

Santa Ana Lane won at 1400m

Le Romain won at 1600m

Trapeze Artist won at 1400m

Vega Magic won at 1400m

Brave Smash (JPN) won at 1600m

US Navy Flag won at 1400m

Shoals won at 1600m

Additional factor

US Navy Flag this time last year won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over 1207m at Newmarket on a Soft track. He returned this year to win the Group 1 July Cup over the same distance, by 1 3/4L, on a Good track. Winning at Newmarket up the undulating course requires strength and stamina that is different to pure speed of flat course sprinting.

Home track advantage

Redzel – market price $7.00 $2.60

In current form and can handle track

Santa Ana Lane – market price $8.50 $3.00

Shoals – market price $7.00 $2.60

International class

US Navy Flag – market price $8.50 $3.00

Going wide

Le Romain – market price $18.00 $5.00

Good luck on the climb.

Santa Ana Lane, In Her Time and Shoals three out in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes, picture Sportpix.com.au

 

 

 

 

 

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