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Raceday wagering review

The wagering review of Saturday's TAB.com.au fixed odds betting for races at the Winx Stakes meeting at Randwick and The Valley and Future Markets updates.

FUTURES UPDATES

GOLDEN ROSE
True Detective $26-$15 (after winning Up And Coming Stakes)
Sperium $26-$15

THE EVEREST
Libertini $26-$15 AND THEN $11 (after winning Silver Shadow Stakes @ Randwick)


RANDWICK

RACE ONE
The punters knew what they were doing with Charlotte’s Heart in the TAB Highway Class 2 to start off the Randwick card. The Brett Cavanough-trained mare reached as big as $21 at 9:30 in the morning but was just $10 by jump time. She found plenty of traffic in the straight but Jason Collett managed to muscle his way clear and she motored home, savaging the line. Other notable movers in the race were Gem Dealer ($8-$5.50) and Lady Demi ($11-$7). 
BIG BETS
Lady Demi $2,000 @ $8 
Gem Dealer $1,000 @ $5

RACE TWO
Nobody wanted to lead in the BM78 but finally Cyber Intervention took up the running. Valentino Rossa was the subsequent winner of the race but had to came from last on the corner to narrowly defeat the brave Travancore ($4.20-$4.60) in a close head-bobber. Valentino Rossa was a slight drifter on the day, $6.50 out to $7.50, but was in from $8.50 when markets opened on Wednesday. The well-supported The Promise got as big as $11 before punters crunched her in to $7 and she ran a nice third. Adana ($3.40-$3.90) was a drifter on race day and when you watch the replay you might find a few excuses but looked to hit the line well.
BIG BETS
Adana $3,000 @ $3.90, $2.000 @ $3.50
Travancore $2,000 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.20

RACE THREE
It was a hard-fought contest between the favourite True Detective and Superium in the Up And Coming Stakes over the 1300m. Superium ($5.50-$7) was ridden hands and heels by Glen Boss in the finish and was first past the post but there was contact between the two runners in the straight. True Detective fired in a protest that was ultimately upheld. The favourite was one of the best-backed runners on the Randwick card, $2.50-$2.30 on the day but in from $3.60 since markets opened with TAB. Lucicello ($6-$5) finished 1.5 lengths behind the pair in third place. 
The Chris Waller-trained winner held 55 percent of the total investment and was heavily leveraged through multis.
BIG BETS
True Detective: $5,000 @ $2.40, $3,000 @ $2.40

RACE FOUR
Our Candidate was one of the best backed runners all day.
The Kris Lees runner held nearly 60 percent of the market in the Gold Coast Turf Club Trophy (2400 metres).
Brenton Avdulla positioned the entire behind the leader and stuck to the rails. Once Scholarly ($5.50-$5) shifted off, Our Candidate simply cruised to the front and raced clear to win impressively.
Gayatri ($14) and Attention Run ($8-$9.50) filled the minors.
BIG BETS
Our Candidate: $2,500 @ $2, $2,000 @ $2, $1,800 @ $2, $2,000 @ $2 TWICE

RACE FIVE
Libertini certainly answered her critics and couldn’t have been more impressive strolling away for a very soft win first-up from a break. She was the best-backed runner on the Randwick card shortening in the morning from $1.70 to $1.50. After getting every chance in the run from the box-seat she let down enormously and looked to be in a class all of her on. Flit ($4.60-$8.00) and Let It Pour ($13-$16) filled the minor placings.
The winner held three-quarters of the total investment.
BIG BETS
Libertini $10,000 @ $1.70, $5,000 @ $1.70, $3,000 @ $1.55, $14,000 @ $1.50, $6,500 @ $1.50, $5,000 @ $1.50, $2,000 @ $1.50

RACE SIX
It was an exciting photo finish in the Show County Quality. Both parties in the photo were well-supported by punters but Deprive ($3.30-$3.20) got the nod over Trope ($5-$4.60) who made a late surge down the outside to come up short by a whisker. Deprive held just over 50% of the money invested on the race and it was an excellent piloting job on Deprive by Rachael King who patiently waited for the gap on the inside. Baller ($6-$4.8) was also well-supported on the day and looked a genuine threat in the straight but couldn’t finish off well enough to nab a place. 
BIG BETS
Deprive: 10,000 @ $3.20, $5,000 @ $3

RACE SEVEN
Samadoubt claimed his first ever Group 1 victory causing the biggest upset of the day in the Winx Stakes. The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding was unwanted by punters drifting out from $34 to $41. The best-backed runner in the race was the Godolphin Group 1 superstar Avilius opening $3.10, drifting to $3.50 and crunched in to $2.60 by start time. Avilius settled well-back in the field (as expected) and was winding up late to run fourth. The seasoned campaigner Happy Clapper ($4.80) returned in fine style to finish second and Invincible Gem ($14) claimed third. Best Of Days ($21-$12) was a popular double-figure runner and looked to get a lovely run in transit but finished back in seventh place. 
BIG BETS
Avilius: $3,000 @ $3.20, $2,500 @ $2.50
Happy Clapper: $2,000 @ $4.80
Verry Elleegant: $5,000 @ $4.80

RACE EIGHT
The late plunge was landed in the Group 3 Toy Show Quality where the well-supported Mizzy hit the line. She was a significant shortener after scratchings moving from $4.40 in to $3.30 and in from $9.00 since Wednesday. She settled beautifully on the fence and got the split at the right time in the straight to beat home Soothing who looked to be a little inconvenienced in the run. Soothing certainly ran better than the betting suggested as she drifted from $6 out to $13 overall. Dyslexic ($13-$8.50) was heavily tried and looked to be hitting the line well in fourth place. 
BIG BETS
Mizzy: $3,000 @ $3.80, $3,000 @ $3.50, $10,000place @ $1.65

RACE NINE
Roheryn and Prime Candidates were costly conveyances for punters in the final event on the card - the Kogaroo Handicap (1400 metres).
Godolphin's Roheryn was responsible for nearly 70 percent of the money while Prime Candidate ($3.70-$3.30) was the only one seriously tried to beat.
Roheryn ($2.15-$2-$2.05) was always well back while Prime Candidate led but was ultimately run down by Sweet Deal ($8.50-$10) which did have some backing but still drifted.
BIG BETS
Roheryn $10,600 @ $2.05, $7,200 @ $2.05, $6,000 @ $2.05, $5,000 @ $2.05 MULTIPLE TIMES
Prime Candidate $10,000 @ $3.30

MOONEE VALLEY

RACE ONE
The first race on the program was a BM78 and it was an impressive win by the well-supported Junipal ($7.50-$5.50). The solid market favourite Shot Of Irish ($3.70-$3.10-$3.80) led on settling, controlled the tempo of the race and tried to kick away in the straight. There was a wall of horses desperately trying to run him down  in the final stages but it was Junipal that surged through the pack late with the favourite clinging on for second place. Laure Me In was a well-supported runner in the race ($9.50-$5.50) but was never likely in the run and finished fourth. 
BIG BETS
Shot Of Irish: $2,000 x $3,000 @ $3.80/$1.70
Junipal: $500ew @ $6.50/$2.30

RACE TWO
It was one of the most impressive wins of the day by the favourite Dabiyr. He drifted on the day from $3.10 to $3.40 but with the early deduction applied did shorten from $4.20 to $3.40 overall. The heavily tried Perfect Rhyme was backed from $9.50 to $7.50 on race morning and was the clear leader on settling (as is her usual racing style) with the well-fancied favourite Dabiyr camped just behind in second. Dabiyr travelled beautifully, took off at the 400m mark and bolted in by 4 lengths. Serenade The Stars ($23-$9) as was a massive shortener on the day and did manage to finish in second place. 
BIG BETS
Dabiyr $2,000 @ $3.40

RACE THREE
Sassy Salitage was too strong for her rivals in the 3YO Fillies Plate. After settling second in the run behind Lady Lupino she went straight past her at the corner and managed to hold on for a convincing win. Lady Lupino ($5-$4.20) was the favourite in what was a very open race but Sassy Salitage ($13-$6.50) had plenty of admirers too as she halved her price on the day. The unsupported roughie La Tene ($16-23) and previously unbeaten Kooweerup ($5.50-$6) filled the minor placings, coming second and third respectively. 
BIG BETS
Lady Lupino: $1,200 @ $5.00

RACE FOUR
Algadon Miss ($3.40-$3.30) was four times more popular than any other runner in the Dr Sheahan Plate and it was a dominant win. Angelic Spirit ($18-$14) led the race with Miss Norway ($10-$15) sitting second and the favourite sat in the box-seat. Algadon Miss loomed up three-wide in the straight, went straight past the frontrunners and was eased up on the line. Fragonard ($14-$9.50) on face-value was disappointing but had no chance after getting that far back in the run.    
BIG BETS
Algadon Miss: $1,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.40, $3,000 @ $3.30

RACE FIVE
The favourite Assertive Approach ($2.20-$2.70) got the chocolates in the Carlyon Stakes despite drifting in the betting since Wednesday. Assertive Approach pinged to the lead in the small field and gave a nice kick in the straight but was gamely challenged by the well-fancied Bons Away. The favourite managed to fend off the fast-finishing Bons Away ($3.40-$3.20) who missed the kick and that poor start proved costly for the second placegetter.
BIG BETS
Assertive Approach: $10,000 @ $2.70, $5,000 @ $2.70

RACE SIX
The popular elect in Romancer was too good in the sixth event on the card over 1519 metres.
Romancer, trained by Grahame Begg, was nearly twice as popular as any other runner and was aided by a great trip behind the leader Gold Fields ($17).
Peeling around the heels of the leader on straightening, Romancer hit the front with Lachie King on board to beat Gold Fields and New Universe ($5).
Strike Force, nosed out of the minor placing, was tried at odds throughout the afternoon and firmed from $10-$7.50.
BIG BETS
Romancer $4,000 @ $2.90

RACE SEVEN
Condo's Express was the money horse ever since the market opened earlier in the week.
The Richard Laming runner opened at $7 on Wednesday with punters not wasting any time taking the overs, backing him into $4.20 on Thursday. Further support saw him open today at $3.80 and eventually he would jump at $3.70.
Sprinting sharply after sitting fourth in the run, Linda Meech guided the son of Rubick to the front on straightening and the pair gave nothing else a chance.
Hightail went around as the $2.80 favourite and overcame a wide run to catch the eye in second, while Hawker Hurricane ($5.50-$10) defied the drift to run a cracking race in third after working.
Punters were spot on in this race with the quinella pairing commanding 71 percent of the total.
BIG BETS
Condo's Express $2,000 @ $4
Hightail $3,000 @ $3 

RACE EIGHT
It was an easy watch for the truckload of punters that were on Tavisan in the BM90 over 1200m at the Valley. The Mick Price-trained galloper firmed from $3.50 to $2.40 this morning and punters couldn’t empty their pockets quick enough in the final minutes before the jump. Tavisan cruised to the lead one-off the fence and slipped away in the straight with not one moment of worry for invested punters. In stark contrast, Terbium drifted ferociously from $2.80 to $3.60 and found himself three-wide worse than midfield without cover and weakened accordingly. 
BIG BETS
Tavisan: $2,000 @ $3.20, $1,350 @ $3, $4,000 @ $2.50, $3,000 @ $2.40

RACE NINE
Kentucky breeze had admirers but the main focus in this race was for Al Galayel, Inverloch and Charossa.
The Levi Kavanagh-trained winner was an $11 chance this morning and touched $9.50 before getting back out to the $11 at the jump.
Brett Prebble rode a masterful race to overhaul the frontrunners over the concluding stages to get the money.
Charossa ($5-$4.40) and Tavirun ($5.50-$9-$8.50) filled the minors.
BIG BETS
Al Galayel $3,500 @ $4.80, $5,000 e/w @ $4.60/$1.90
Charossa $4,000 @ $4.80
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