The promised rains arrived in Sydney on Thursday and look set to continue through to Monday, suddenly it is wet track form, such as it is, for Rosehill’s meeting on Saturday. Rated a Soft 7 on Friday morning after 21mm it was downgraded on Friday afternoon to a Heavy 8 after 36.5mm in the last 24 hours. Saturday's forecast is for 20mm to 45mm of rain to add to Thursday and Friday's deluge - note the forecast has been downgraded late Friday to a possible 6mm to 15mm of rain on Saturday.
The two-year-old’s open the nine race programme at 1.05pm with a current field of 11 for the $125,000, Iron Jack Handicap (1100m). Added to the always open question of juveniles performing to their strengths on raceday is the now rain impacted track.
The TAB market supports Godolphin’s Lonhro colt Beyliks, $3.40 into $2.70, and the Maher and Eustace trained Hinchinbrook filly Cellsabeel, $4.40 into $2.90 and now $2.80 on Friday afternoon.
In the colt’s favour is his third in the Group 3 Breeders’ Plate over 1000m at Randwick back on October 5th with the track a Soft 6. He also won a trial on a Soft 6 back in September with his last trial win over 900m at Rosehill on December 30th on a Good 4.
A Soft 6 does not make for the capability to handle a Heavy track, but it is a guide. By contrast Cellsabeel has only know Good tracks except for a trial over 800m at Hawkesbury back in October where she was fourth.
She was fourth in the Golden Gift over 1100m at Rosehill on November 9th, on a Good 3, with her two recent winning trials on Good 4 tracks, the latest over 1050m at Randwick on January 9th.
Moving to Gerald Ryan’s impressive first start winner Return With Honour, $3.40 out to $4.20, and once again here is a two-year-old who has only ever raced on Good 4 tracks. He win his debut over 1100m with ease and his three trials have all been on Good 4 track.
The Fastnet Rock colt is out of an O’Reilly mare, Irish Nova, and the O’Reilly’s with their Last Tycoon heritage tend to handle the cut out of the ground. Searching for clues everywhere. Return With Honour’s current market price looks worthwhile.
Looking further out in the market is Godolphin’s other runner, In Flanders, who has the same profile at Beyliks. The Exceed And Excel filly was fifth in the Gimcrack Stakes on the same day as the Breeders’ Plate, she won a trial in September on a Soft 6 and she was third on the Good 4 at Rosehill on the 30th. The filly is $16.00 into $15.00.
Moving on from the two-year-old’s, two races later is the best backed runner of the meeting, Matthew Smith’s Lashes who has been supported from $1.95 into $1.80.
The four-year-old I Am Invincible mare has raced on a Heavy 8 track for a third over 1100m at Bm 70 level at Warwick Farm last July and she won her maiden over the same distance and track in January last year on a Heavy 8.
The mare resumed with a win under regular jockey Jason Collett in the Bm 78 on the Kensington track rated a Good 4 on January 4th. The mare should be able to carry on winning after her earlier wet track results and additional strength as a four-year-old to justify her support.
Return With Honour, picture Stevehart.com